Hand Review #3 – Folding a Full House

This hand takes place in a £33 Bounty Hunter on SkyPoker.

I’m divided on this one.  Part of me thinks I played this fine.  Another part of me says if he has it I should just go broke.

We are very early in the tournament.  I defend my BB with KQo, which is a standard defend 6 handed.

Screen Shot 2017-07-03 at 22.58.01

The flop gives me a pair and some backdoor draws so I call the continuation bet.

Screen Shot 2017-07-03 at 23.09.51

The turn brings in my two pair.  I still don’t think this is strong enough to lead out.  J10 got there, plus if I lead the turn and get raised I think I’m doing poor against an UTG range.  I check and call the bet to reassess the river and keep the pot manageable.

Screen Shot 2017-07-03 at 23.10.01

The river is where it gets interesting.

The King completes my Full House and I lead to get value from Ax hands, KJ/K10 and J10 and a variety of others.

Screen Shot 2017-07-03 at 23.10.08

 

Then he jams All-in and puts me in a world of pain.

He has shown decent strength across all 3 streets so theres no reason to believe he can’t have hands like AA and AK.  However there is also a couple of hands he can have which he potentially is overvaluing like QQ, 44 and maybe KJ/K10.

My notes seem to suggest he’s not liable to shove with a bluff, so although the shove is polarising its definitely very heavily weighted to value.  The question is whether or not I beat his possible value range as stated above.  I do think perhaps he only raises the hands I beat instead of shoving, but thats a guess at best.

Think I need someone who’s better at maths than me to work this out.  It’s got me scratching my head.

Just don’t know.

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