Hand Review #2 – Folding Sets

So I’ve got a hand which I’ve talked over with a number of Poker mates.  The conclusion from them is that I made a mistake over the long term.  Despite already being relatively happy with the outcome of the discussion, I thought the debate was quite interesting and thought I’d share the hand to see if others shared the same views.

Blinds are 50/100 in a £55 Bounty Hunter Tournament on SkyPoker.  We are sat with 6310 chips.   It’s relatively early in the tournament.

Here is the hand:

hand1hand2hand3hand4

 

So my thoughts on this hand are as follows:

Yes, there is an argument I should lead the flop however I’d rather focus on how the hand actually played out instead of ifs/whats/maybes.

When villain checks back the flop in position, in my opinion he can never have an already made hand.  E.g. sets/two pairs etc.  4 way pot he has to bet all his value hands to charge for draws on quite a draw heavy board.

The turn K doesn’t complete any other 2 pairs I’d put in his range.  When he raises on the turn, the only value hand I can put the villain on is a flush.  I’d think he probably wouldn’t raise any Kx hands in position on such a dangerous board.  I don’t think he can have AhKx based on the action preflop which I think he could potentially have in his raise range (for value).

The only alternative is that villain thinks my bet could be a stab at the pot and he could be raising as a semi bluff with AhX hands.

Obviously it’s way too tight to fold to the raise at this point.  I can’t put villain on a set so I think I have multiple outs to hit if I’m behind, and we’ll see what action the river brings.

He bets smallish on the river which I read as value (rightly or wrongly).  Value hands I can put him on are potentially KxQh or a flush.  Everything else here seems like pure air.

He only has to be bluffing roughly 1 in 5 for me to make money here long term, but at the time it felt so much like a flush I decided to fold.  Having talked with others it does appear I was probably getting the odds to call here and the fold was too tight.

Anticipating people wondering about reads on villain – next to none.  I was always historically quite useless at taking notes on players and despite playing the villain before I couldn’t quite remember how the villain played.  Villain is definitely a decent player.  Probably capable of pulling a variety of moves, but yet to see any in this tournament.

Opinions always welcome…

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